This Week's Post: More on investigating climate change

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This post is a follow-up to my last one-- providing a way to discover for yourself the important signals of global warming, even as it is happening.

I have provided (below) the actual assignment and data recording sheet that I used in my environmental science classes at the University of Utah.

Please download the materials and have fun collecting the data.  The analysis will likely be more serious.


BIOL 3460 (Montague)
Exercise: Investigating Climate Change

Climate is "average weather." In order to begin to understand the controversy regarding climate change (and global warming) we will collect and analyze some data.

Assignment:

1. For the next 30 days collect the following information and record it in the table provided below. Information required: Daily observations of nighttime low temperature (NLT) and the average nighttime low temperature (ANLT) for a specific local weather station. You could obtain this information from any of the following sources: A local radio or television news/weather program or a local daily newspaper or a web site that provides daily weather observations (e.g., http://www.wrcc.dri.edu, http://gbdash.dri.edu). Whichever source of information you select, you must use the same source for all 30 data entries.

2. For each observation, calculate ΔT (the difference between NLT and ANLT). Construct a graph and plot the 30 observed values for ΔT. Your graph may be one of various forms. Try different approaches. Pay attention to which is the dependent variable and which is the independent variable.

 3. Answer the following questions.

What is the "average" nighttime low based on?

What is the null hypothesis in this exercise?

After 30 days, what are your tentative conclusions based on the evidence you collected?

What analyses did you perform to arrive at your conclusions? Did you add the number of days of above normal, normal, and below-normal nighttime temperatures? Did you add all of the lower-than-normal ΔT's and all of the higher-than-normal ΔT's and compare the sums? Etc.?

What are the limitations of this exercise with respect to revealing change or stability?

How many days of observations of "weather" would we need to assess "climate?" How about 100 days? How about 1,000 days (2.7 years)? How about 10,000 days (27 years)? Could you work back in time?

What will you have actually measured if you did this for 10,000 days?

To learn more about widespread (global) climate change, could you enlist the help of college students at every North American university (or every university in the world)? --or every thinking citizen with a TV?

Do local TV meteorologists suspect that above-average nighttime low temperatures are a "fingerprint" of global warming? On a commercial TV station, what would prevent a meteorologist from explaining his/her interpretation of the science he/she reports daily?

Once again, why are we interested in nighttime low temperatures? 

temperature_data_table

This Week's Post: Climate Change Homework Assignment

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Climate Change Homework Assignment

Here's a topic for every fifth-grader's science fair project.  Or, if you are a "climate change skeptic" or if you would like to challenge your friends who are, this is a simple exercise.

Background:  We know that the Earth's pre-industrial atmosphere contained certain trace gases that absorb heat energy.  During the daytime, the sun warms half of the planet as it rotates on its axis.  At night, some of the absorbed warmth is reradiated back into space.  Without the atmosphere's greenhouse effect, all heat energy would be lost to space and the Earth would be very cold-- less than 32 degrees F.  Water would be frozen and life as we know it could not exist.

So, the natural greenhouse effect created by water vapor, carbon dioxide, and a few other gases keeps the Earth a comfortable temperature for the life that has evolved over the past 3 billion years.

Since the industrial era began in the 1800's, however, humans have enhanced the natural greenhouse effect by emitting billions of tons of carbon dioxide, and by land use practices (plowing, forest cutting) that limit the Earth's capacity to absorb (sequester) some of the released carbon dioxide.  As a consequence, the atmospheric greenhouse has become more and more effective in trapping re-radiated heat energy.  This brings us to the homework exercise.

The Assignment:  Since the atmospheric greenhouse works primarily at night, by absorbing some of the heat energy absorbed the preceding day, nighttime low temperatures are trending above average.  This warming trend becomes apparent to anyone who pays attention to their local weather reports. 

For the next 30 days, record your local nighttime low and the average nighttime low. 

The null hypothesis(for your science fair project) is 'the actual and the average nighttime lows will not be significantly different over the 30-day period.'

Note:  The average nighttime low for your area is based on a 30-year record, and it is updated every 5 years. You might have to find a weather information source that reports an "almanac" that gives nighttime low averages for that date.

If you believe 30 days is too few data points, try 60 days or 90 days or a year.  If you search the weather/climate records for the last 10 or 100 years, you won't have to collect your own current date.

TV and radio weather presenters know about this trend, but due to commercial considerations on commercial stations, never mention it.

This Week's Post: New Woodcut--Snowy Owl

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This Week's Post: New Woodcut--Snowy Owl

I completed the "Snowy Owl" woodcut in June 2016, and I have several other owl portraits on the drawing board for future prints.

The Snowy Owl occurs throughout the North American Arctic (Alaska and Canada). Occasionally it occurs in the lower 48 States, especially in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes Region.

Regarding the bird's facial expression, Alan Eckert, in his 1974 volume, The Owls of North America, remarks that "the eyes are set slightly closer to the top of the head than in other species, and though they can be opened widely at will, more often then not they are partially lidded, tending to give the bird a sleepy or dreamy appearance...".

This particular owl has widely opened eyes.

Print is 14" x 11" matted.  $48.00, edition size 88.

This Week's Post: An Updated 'Moon Phase' Page for your Garden Book (repost)

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This Week's Post: An Updated 'Moon Phase' Page for your Garden Book (repost)

It's still planting season! 

If you own a copy of Fred’s Gardening: An Ecological Approach, the page with the moon phase table (p. 72) is nearly out of date.  The original page covered 2009-2014.  A revision in 2011 provided tables for 2011 – 2016.  The updated page (below) covers 2016 – 2021. 

Feel free to download the page (right-click to save) and paste it over the old one to make the only time-sensitive aspect of the book useful for another six years.

moon_phase_2016_2021

This Week's Post: Join us at Summit Arts 2016 this weekend, July 8th and 9th, 2016

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in. 


Join us at Summit Arts 2016 this weekend, July 8th and 9th, 2016

Fred will be exhibiting his artwork at the Summit Arts 2016 Fine Arts show and sale in Oakley, UT, this weekend. The show runs Friday, July 8th, 4:00 pm - 8:00 pm, and Saturday, July 9th, 2016, 10:00 am - 5:00 pm. Admission is free. See the flyer below for more details. 

summitarts_postcard

This Week's Post: The Stories with the Images, Part 2

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The Stories with the Images, Part 2

So far I have completed four woodcuts in the "Ancient Wisdom" series.  Last week I highlighted two in the series of four. Here are the stories associated the remaining two so far.

1.  "Wa-Maka-Skan"

Wa-Maka-Skan is a Lakota word for all the moving things of the Earth.  This woodcut print depicts four types-- the winged peoples, the crawling peoples, the four-legged peoples, and the two-leggeds.  The concept and the word reflects a more biocentricworldview, a more life-centered approach to viewing humans' place among other "moving things."


2.  "Storyteller's Circle"

In an earlier time, before the recorded word, cultural knowledge was passed from generation to generation through stories told by elders to children.  The advantage of the oral tradition is that the stories may be modified by those with experience and insight to fit the changing circumstances of the people.  The disadvantage of this mode of cultural coordination is that as the storytellers fade away or are displaced by the written word, both the language and the lessons fade away also.  The oral tradition is flexible, but it is extinction-prone.  The recorded word has the advantage of "permanence," but the disadvantage of archived error.

This Week's Post: The Stories with the Images, Part 1

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in. 


The Stories with the Images, Part 1

So far I have completed four woodcuts in the "Ancient Wisdom" series.  Here are the stories associated with two of them.

1.  "Journey"
My understanding of the interpretation of Native American rock art is that images with a depiction of a hand reflect the personal experience of the artist.  A spiral represents a journey.  A spiral going "away" is an outbound trip.  A double spiral is a journey away and back.  What an ingenious way to represent a long trip in a small space (rock surface or tanned hide)-- coil the miles up.  If one were to accept all of this literally, the journey could be a vision quest. 

2.  "Stone Circle"
This simple woodcut depicts a circle of stones that can be found, often partially buried, throughout the plains of North America.  In earlier times, some Native Peoples anchored the sides of their hide or brush shelters with stones that they gathered, undoubtedly with considerable effort.  Since then the shelters have disappeared and the people who built them are gone, but the rings of stones remain.

This Week's Post: Join Us at "Pilar's Art in the Garden"

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Join Fred and eight other invited artists at Pilar's "Art-in-the Garden" event on Friday, June 10th;  Saturday, June 11th;  and Sunday, June 12th at 403 8th Avenue in Salt Lake City.  This exhibit and sale will take place from 5 to 9 p.m. each evening.  There is an admission fee of $15 that includes beverages (wine and lemonade) and light fare.  There is free parking in the LDS Hospital parking garage on D street (between 8th and 9th Avenues).

Fred will be exhibiting his large ink drawings, woodcut prints, and letterpress prints. For more information, see the event announcement below.

 

This Week's Post: "Zebra Longwing" (Heliconius charithonia)

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in. 


"Zebra Longwing" (Heliconius charithonia)

This is a drawing I completed several years ago and is now in a private collection.  It is about 12" x 16" and rendered in pen and ink.

zebralongwing

The living animal is about 3" from wingtip to wingtip.  The wings are black and the slashes and broken lines of spots are yellow. Undersides are also black but with paler streaks.  It is a tropical species that occurs as far north as the Gulf Coastal States, South Carolina, the lower Mississippi drainage, and Mexico.  Larvae feed on passionflowers and concentrate the poisonous compounds these plants produce.  While the plant chemicals are harmless to the larvae and adult butterflies, they make the insects unpalatable to predators.  The black-and-yellow color patterns provide a conspicuous warning.

The Zebra Longwing (or simply Zebra) is not related to the Zebra Swallowtail. More information on the zebra longwing is available at the "Featured Creatures" website (University of Florida Entomology).

To view another of Fred's available butterfly drawings ("Calico Butterfly"), visit the original drawings gallery.





 

 

 

 

This Week's Post: The Economy and the Environment

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in.


The Economy and the Environment

This Fox Sense II page depicts how some view the relationship between economic activity and environmental quality-- a "rigid linkage" model.  When the economy flourishes, environmental quality declines.  This occurs as conventional business activity depletes resources, creates pollution, contributes to climate change, and converts more natural areas to production for humans. 

When economic activity slows down or stagnates, environmental quality typically improves (or doesn't decline as fast).  Fewer resources are used, less pollution is produced, and large-scale land use projects are cancelled or put on hold.

This sorry state of affairs is primarily the result of lack of imagination and profound ecological ignorance.  It is also big-picture, long-range economic ignorance.

Our challenge is to engage in appropriate economic activity that also contributes to environmental quality.

 

This Week's Post: Upcoming Events in May and June

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in.

Two Upcoming Events

1.  Come and join in a discussion on gardens, gardening and the environment on Wednesday, May 25th, 2016, from 7 p.m. until 9 p.m. at The King's English Bookshop (1511 S. 1500 E. in Salt Lake City).

Fred will be discussing his hand-lettered Gardening: An Ecological Approach, and his hand-bound Garden Notes: Thoughts on Gardening, Ecology and Sustainability.  He will also have copies of his 24th Anniversary Edition of Fox Sense: A View of Humans and Their Environment.

If you have questions about planning your garden, the 3' x 6' garden bed system (outlined in his books), or how gardening can be a component of environmental activism, be sure to attend.  For those who are interested, he will also discuss the concept, details and construction of these artists' books.

2.  Join Fred and eight other invited artists at Pilar Pobil's "Art-in-the Garden" event on Friday, June 10th; Saturday, June 11th; and Sunday, June 12th at 403 8th Avenue in Salt Lake City.  This exhibit and sale will take place from 5 to 9 p.m. each evening.  There is an admission fee of $15 that includes beverages (wine and lemonade) and light fare.  There is free parking in the LDS Hospital parking garage on D street (between 8th and 9th Avenues). Proceeds from admission benefit the Pilar Foundation, which supports the arts in Utah.

Fred will be exhibiting his large ink drawings, woodcut prints, and letterpress prints.

This Week's Post: Another View of Global Population Increase

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This Foxsense II page calls our attention to the fact that in 14 years we will add more than a billion people to the human population. With humans using 48% of the Earth's land surface to feed a single species (us), what will be the prospects for the other 2 to 10 million species on the planet?

Not only will it be a challenge to feed humans, but at the current rate that industrial agriculture diminishes soil, water, and crop biodiversity, we will also be crowding out other species, natural areas, and the critical ecological functions they provide to support all kinds of life on Earth.

Fox Sense II, a new work in the Fox Sense series, is scheduled to be released later in 2016. Each volume in the series consists of a hand-bound collection of environmental mini-posters written and illustrated by Fred and accompanied by the insightful (and sometimes cynical) commentary of a watchful fox. These volumes make excellent reading for anyone concerned about the currently trajectory of human impacts on the Earth. The 24th Anniversary Edition of Fred's 1992 classic collection, Fox Sense I, is currently available. 

foxsense2_population2030

This Week's Post: Add Some Color (revisited)

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities and shop.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in.


This week we present a page from Gardening: An Ecological Approach for you to color. See chapter three in the book, which discusses gardening methods, techniques, and skills, for more ideas on planning your garden space. 

freespirit_garden_fred_montague

This Week's Post: Gardens and the Environment

This weekly blog post and its host website cover a wide variety of Fred Montague's environmental commentaries, gardening topics, and wildlife/art activities and shop.  Please browse the website and the blog archives for topics you are interested in.


GARDENS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

We face many difficult challenges.  These include addressing our own activities that threaten climate stability, soil fertility, biological diversity, resource availability, and general environmental quality.  In fundamental ways, our lives depend on rapid, responsible, and widespread solutions.

While we are waiting for the right leader or poem or song (or disaster) to motivate people to act, there are some things we can do as individuals, families, or small groups to begin.  It seems logical to me that if our difficulties have arisen from many people engaged in (or tacitly promoting) unsustainable activities, then we could quickly turn things around if many people incorporated nature into their worldviews and nature-friendly activities into their lifestyles. 

If you have a small space (e.g. a yard) or have a neighborhood that has some small spaces (churchyards, schoolyards, etc.), then you can begin today.  You don't need a leader, an advanced degree, a government grant, or a permit.  You simply need a shovel, a hoe, and a few packets of seeds.

A small garden provides multiple benefits to the gardener, the landscape, and the global environment.  Gardens provide fresh, healthy, organic food for those who tend it and to those with whom they share.  Gardens recycle unused nutrients from the kitchen, yard, and garden itself via the compost pile back into the next crop.  In the process, organic matter accumulates and some carbon is removed from the atmosphere and stored in the ever-increasing fertility of the soil.  In this way, food can be grown without synthetic fertilizers.  With organic matter in the soil and mulch on top, moisture is conserved and efficiently used.  As gardeners save seeds from their best vegetable plants and trade them with each other, plant diversity is maintained, and sometimes increased.  Diverse organic gardens with food plants, flowers, grassy strips, little rock piles, and odd (weedy) corners provide habitat for beneficial insects, songbirds, and other animals the make the home site interesting and biologically functional.  Furthermore, food produced in places where we have already displaced Nature helps to preserve the "real Nature" that still exists. 

And, while we are tending the beets and the kale and contemplating the compost and the lilting morning song of the house wren, we may be able to think of additional approaches to living sustainably in a neighborhood on a finite planet.

Environmental Commentary: Rethinking Consumption

Time to revisit another graphic from Fox Sense I, a hand-bound collection of environmental mini-poster/editorial cartoons. Rethinking consumption enables one to strike at the roots of many modern-day challenges.

Fred is offering a 24th Anniversary Edition of Fox Sense I, which features Fred’s illustrations accompanied by the insightful (and sometimes cynical) commentary of a watchful fox.

This book has been popular among environmentalists and teachers, conservationists and environmental education specialists, social critics and book collectors—anyone concerned with the current trajectory of human impacts on the Earth.  The interesting thing about the book’s topics is that each one that was outlined in 1992 is just as relevant today, or more so.

rethink

From the Gallery: Fred's Woodcut, "Young Wolf"

"Young Wolf" is the first in the current series of thirty-three woodcut prints. To produce each woodcut, Fred carves away the negative space of the image on a maple block, leaving the surface to be inked. He then prints the edition on his 1913 letterpress. The bold silhouette of the woodcut prints present a striking contrast to the detailed pen-and-ink drawings that comprise another part of his work. 

A few of these prints are still available.

Fox Sense II: Upside-Down Worldview

I am working on a new series of environmental mini-posters and plan to publish them in a hand-bound book later this year.  Fox Sense II will pick up where the original Fox Sense left off.

I will share some of these pages as I complete them.  Here’s one I’m working on now. All people have worldviews—notions about how the world works, what’s “right” and “wrong,” and what their role in the world should be.  We seldom question the assumptions that underlie our own perspectives.

Sometimes a simple “why?” can turn your world upside down.

For updates on the progress of the book and on release information, please subscribe to Fred's Mountainbearink newsletter.

fox_sense_ii_worldview_upsidedown

 

Labeling Genetically Modified Foods

Senate Bill 2609 is the latest proposed U. S. legislation designed to limit the information that consumers have in the marketplace.  This bill prohibits states from labeling genetically modified foods. It allows for voluntary labeling through obscure and time-consuming devices such as QR codes rather than physical, on-the-label information. It also mandates government education of the public to accept biotech food products.

The agricultural biotech corporations strongly oppose labeling GMOs and have spent large sums of money, not to promote their products to consumers, but rather to hide their occurrence in the foods they purchase.

Transgenic crops (GMOs) are another aspect of corporate control of agriculture.  To maintain and extend this control, corporations must have public acceptance of their profit-generating products.

In Gardening: An Ecological Approach I offer an argument, with references, for promoting small-scale sustainable farming and organic gardening.  I also outline the serious hidden costs of the industrial agriculture model, which now include genetically modified crops..

With respect to genetically modified crops, I have added below the text of an article I wrote for Edible Wasatch magazine.  It lists some questions about GMOs.

If you feel strongly about your right to know about the foods you purchase, please inform yourself about this issue and contact your senator.  Simply call the senator’s office, and a friendly staff member will respectfully take your message for the senator. Identify yourself and give your address, state the number of the bill, and give one or two reasons why you are opposing it.  Phone numbers are listed below.

For more information see the text of the bill.

In Utah:  Senator Orin Hatch        Washington, D. C. office:      202-224-5251
               Sen. Mike Lee                 Washington, D. C. office:      202-224-5444

For other states:  The Capitol switchboard (information):  202-224-3121


EXCERPT: Chapter 13 from Garden Notes:  Thoughts on Gardening, Ecology and Sustainability  (Fred Montague, 2016).  This essay first appeared in Edible Wasatch magazine.

13     GMOs:  Food, Profit, and Risk   

            We have a long history tinkering with things. Through domestication and artificial selection, humans have bred many familiar and useful food organisms-- beef cattle, chickens, hybrid corn, large-fruited tomatoes, and hundreds of others. This artificial selection by managing natural reproductive processes takes time, and the appropriateness of the cross-breeding and the resulting hybrids is typically judged both by their viability and by their benign usefulness.

            In recent decades, hard-won cleverness in genetics and gene manipulation have enabled technicians to bypass the natural breeding process and change organisms by direct micro-manipulation. By inserting a specific heritable gene into an organism's DNA, researchers can create a genetically modified organism (GMO) with a novel trait.

            There are two prominent examples in current industrial agriculture.  One is the insertion of a gene from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) into crops like corn.  The corn plant then produces a Bt protein that is toxic to butterfly and moth larvae, of which a few species are pests of corn grown in monocultures. The stated objective is to reduce the amount of other forms of insecticide necessary to protect the crop.

            The second example is the insertion of a specific bacterial gene into corn, soybeans, canola (rape seed), wheat, and others that enables them to tolerate applications of glyphosate (Monsanto's "Roundup"). The spraying of glyphosate onto fields of these genetically modified (GM) crops doesn't kill the GMOs but does kill all other actively growing plants (weeds). The objective is to reduce mechanical cultivation and thereby reduce fossil fuel consumption and soil erosion. There is a trend to combine two or more traits into the same patented plant.  Herbicide tolerance and insect toxicity comprise most of these stacked-trait varieties.

            From an agribusiness perspective, GMOs anchor an ingenious business plan. For instance, Monsanto's creation of its patented glyphosate herbicide (Roundup) and its patented "roundup ready" GM soybean seeds forces farmers to purchase a package of inputs available nowhere else.

            However, from other perspectives, there are troublesome issues with GMO-based industrial agriculture.  First, it is industrial agriculture. Industrial agriculture fosters corporate efficiency, corporate control, and corporate profit. For this type of food-growing to work, farms must be large, crops must be uniform (monocultures), and synthetic fertilizers and pesticides must be applied. This is a capital-intensive, fossil fuel-based, high input, and largely unsustainable approach to feeding people.

            Second, there is the demonstrated occurrence of "gene flow" from fields of GM crops to nearby non-GMO farms with similar crops. The novel traits are typically dispersed in the pollen of the GMO plants, and since our most important crops are grains (corn, wheat, oats, rice, etc.), and since all of these grasses are wind-pollinated, the patented trait is easily dispersed. This has two ramifications:  1) once the gene appears in an organically grown food product, the food product is no longer "organic," and 2) the corporation can take legal action against the victim farmer for having stolen the patented GM crop. Equally ominous is the research into genetic-use restriction technologies (GURTs). One example is the "terminator gene" which prevents a grower from saving some his harvested seeds for next spring's planting.

            Third, there is inadequate understanding of the health effects of genetically-altered food plants, especially those that introduce systemic toxins into foods and those that increase the ability of food plants to tolerate increased amounts of certain herbicides. Exotic proteins in foods created by genetic engineering have the potential to be allergenic and to challenge the human immune system. The Bt toxin does cause allergic reactions in some people (1), and there are anecdotal accounts suggesting its adverse effect on beneficial human intestinal microorganisms-- just as it affects caterpillars. While there has been significant corporate research and development into the technology to create GMOs, there is less-than-adequate research, public or private, to unmask their long-term effects.  In this sense, GMOs are similar to other industrial miracles whose widespread use eventually caused them to be severely restricted or banned outright (2).

            Fourth, widespread use of GMOs will significantly reduce the crop plant diversity needed in a world of changing climate and altered growing conditions. With the widespread adoption of GM crops, more and more locally adapted crop varieties are being abandoned. In the U. S. in 2004 for example, patented GM plants occupied 85% of soybean acreage and more than 50% of corn acreage (3).

            Fifth, we know the disruption that "natural" invasive exotic species can cause when they move beyond their native ranges. GMOs are novel, exotic, synthetic organisms that Nature has no experience with. Their potential effects are unknown. There is a significant risk of GM crop plants hybridizing with related wild relatives, especially as more and more secondary GM crops reach the market. Their impacts on ecosystems and biological communities are potentially disruptive, and once GMOs become feral, they will be difficult or impossible to control.

            Sixth, there are sobering examples of unrealized claims for GM crops. There is no evidence for increased nutritive value in GM plants. There is no evidence for reduced pesticide use.  According to WorldWatch's Vital Signs 2009, pesticide use actually increased 4% from 1996 through 2004 in U.S. GM crop fields (4).  There is, however, evidence for the ecologically inevitable phenomenon of insect crop pests and weeds developing resistance to the Bt toxin and to the glyphosate herbicide, respectively (5).  With the successful marketing and adoption of GM crops, the one claim that did materialize was that of corporate profitability.

            Seventh, the aggressive and abundantly funded efforts by corporations and trade organizations to prevent labeling food products containing GMOs is puzzling. In an open culture and free market, consumers have the right to information about the products they buy. One would believe that if GMOs are better than traditional food plants and livestock feed, then a business would insist on having its product identified.

            The GMO controversy is at the center of our global food challenge. There are many who are concerned by the ecological and social impacts of corporate control of the world's food. The public benefits of GM food have not yet been established, and the risks range from being overstated to being understated.  Nevertheless, some risks are real, many risks are not completely understood, and some risks are increasing. This is a multifaceted issue that affects all aspects of society-- from Wall Street to food banks, from rich countries to developing countries, from small farms to industrial agriculture operations, from crop fields to wilderness.  The public must decide this issue, but the public needs information that is largely unavailable. Until it is, prudence suggests exercising caution.  Otherwise, as with other industrial experiments on human health and the environment, the final report (and restrictive legislation) is likely to be written by our grandchildren.